Saturday’s By-Election: A template for 2027 politicking, by Usman Yusuf Dole
This analysis is bluntly observed, drawn from Nigeria’s political trajectory and antecedent. it is important to state that this column is neither in support of nor against any political party or figure. Rather it is written out of passion for observation, education, and as a reference point in Nigeria’s evolving democracy.
Nigeria’s Election Story in Three Phases
Nigeria’s democratic history can be summarized in three major moments. First was 1999, when Olusegun Obasanjo emerged with the backing of nearly all critical stakeholders, as the nation prioritized stabilizing its new democracy. Second was 2015, when the opposition united in one basket to oust incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. Third was 2023 and beyond when a divided opposition are now facing a sitting president and lost a pointer to what may lie ahead.
What the Sturday’s By-Elections Indicate
The by-elections held across 11 states last Saturday offer a template for 2027. Out of 16 contested seats, the ruling APC won 12. APGA retained two in Anambra, PDP won one in Oyo, and NNPP managed one in Kano. This outcome shows a familiar pattern: as long as the opposition remains fragmented, the ruling party secures a safer path to victory comes 2027.
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Why 2027 Will Differ from 2015
The 2015 victory was possible because nearly all opposition forces especially from the North united against Jonathan, who also faced political blackmail over Boko Haram and the burden of minority regional identity. by contrast, 2027 is shaping up as a fragmented contest between PDP, ADC, Labour Party, SDP, and NNPP, all against Bola Ahmed Tinubu,a president with deeper regional backing and entrenched political structures.
Let us not forget that Tinubu once stood against a sitting Vice President, Senate President, APC national chairman, ministers, and governors during the primaries, yet emerged victorious. That same political resilience cannot be overlooked.
Challenges and the Opposition’s Dilemma
Yes, APC is facing tough challenges rising hardship, insecurity in the North-West, and public discontent. But Nigeria’s political reality shows that money remains a decisive factor, and APC has enough governors and proxies to mobilize the required support. Opposition parties, on the other hand, lack the united force to channel voter anger into a protest vote and public awareness.
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If Atiku Abubakar defects to ADC and joins forces with Peter Obi, it could be a formidable ticket. However, what would have been a powerful combination in 2023 may be less effective in 2027. As Atiku left PDP, the party risks sliding into a third force despite having ten governors. Again a Jonathan–Kwankwaso ticket could alter the equation, but its likelihood is slim in arrival. Kwankwaso and Obi remain influential, yet their joint strength depends on unlikely compromises as deputies.
A Glimpse Through the Numbers
The Chikun–Kajuru by-election reflects the current balance: APC polled 34,580 votes, PDP 11,491, ADC 3,477, Labour 1,453, and SDP 142. If replicated nationwide, these numbers suggest that the ruling party still holds the upper hand in a divided field.
Conclusion
As things stand, the 2027 elections will likely mirror last Saturday’s by-election: as ruling party ahead and opposition parties splitting the rest. Unless the opposition unites under a single front, APC’s advantage remains intact. However, the fragmented race may still open doors for new faces in legislative contests at both state and national levels.
NB: If the opposition continues separately, nothing will change this analysis!
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