2025: Where Nigeria stands, by Hassan Ahmad
1)Politics: loud contests, weak institutions
Our politics is still personality-driven instead of institution-driven. Parties function more like election vehicles than values-based organisations. Internal democracy is shallow; primaries are transactional; godfatherism persists. Governance then becomes a distribution of appointments and contracts rather than a delivery system for public goods.
This breeds cynicism and makes it easier for desperate actors to weaponise ethnicity, religion, and poverty.
Red line: The normalisation of political thuggery and state-backed intimidation is a direct threat to our democracy. Leaders—incumbent or opposition—who flirt with violence are playing with national fire. Power gained by fear destroys legitimacy and invites instability.
2) Security: too many fires, one bucket
Banditry and kidnapping in the North-West and North-Central, insurgent remnants in the North-East, oil theft and piracy in the South-South, cultism and urban crime across the South—these are different flames feeding one blaze: a security architecture stretched thin, under-coordinated, and under-trusted. Intelligence is uneven, response times are slow, and incentives are misaligned. Communities have lost confidence and often self-help fills the gap, sometimes sliding into vigilante abuses.
Red line: Any political rhetoric that frames communities as enemies or encourages collective punishment fuels the cycle of revenge and recruitment into crime. Security forces need clear rules of engagement, better welfare, technology, and airtight accountability.
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3) Economy: citizens under heavy weather
Inflation has eroded incomes; food prices and transport costs have punched holes in every household budget. FX instability punishes planners and producers. The informal sector is resilient but exhausted; MSMEs struggle with power, credit, and policy uncertainty. Youth—our greatest asset—too often meet closed doors. When citizens cannot see a path from effort to dignity, social anger rises.
Hard truth: Relief without reform is a short-lived sedative. Reform without relief is a spark near dry grass. We need both—targeted cushions and credible, sequenced reforms that show visible wins quickly.
What Must Happen Now (2025–2026)
1. Security reset with transparency
Create joint operations by corridor (e.g., Sokoto–Kebbi–Zamfara axis) with unified command, drones, ISR, and special courts sitting weekly for kidnapping, banditry, and oil theft cases. Publish quarterly arrest-to-conviction dashboards.
Prioritise rescue over ransom; criminalise ransom brokerage; protect whistle-blowers and informants.
Fix police morale: housing, insurance, and equipment—tied to performance metrics the public can see.
2. Food first, fast: Treat food as national security: secure farm belts with agro-ranger units; deploy guaranteed minimum price + off-take for staples; clear fertiliser/seed bottlenecks; repair 10–15 key rural roads that unlock the largest crop basins.
Open storage and market data: weekly price transparency reduces speculation.
3. FX and power stability for MSMEs
A predictable FX window for genuine importers and exporters; clear FX backlog transparently and once.
Emergency 24-month power reliability program in industrial clusters (gas + embedded renewables), not speeches.
4. Targeted social protection that restores dignity: Shift from vague “palliatives” to time-bound, digital, auditable cash transfers and transport/food vouchers for the poorest 30%, published by LGA (with grievance channels).
Expand public works tied to climate adaptation: small dams, shelterbelts, irrigation rehab—pay youths to build national assets.
READ ALSO: Nigeria at a Crossroads: The urgent issues we can no longer ignore, by Hassan Ahmad
5. Rule of law and election credibility
Security neutrality during elections; prosecute vote-buyers and thugs, not just foot soldiers.
Judiciary timelines: conclude electoral cases within six months with televised proceedings to rebuild trust.
2027: Three Realistic Scenarios
A) Renewal (best case)
Reformers across parties consolidate; coalitions are issue-based, not merely anti-someone. Security improves in key corridors; food inflation decelerates; power reliability rises in clusters; citizens feel their first tangible relief. Voter turnout increases and results are broadly accepted. Post-election protests are minimal because losers see a path to try again.
What makes this possible: Responsible rhetoric, a credible coalition agreement (policy, not patronage), youth inclusion on the ballot and in campaign leadership, and early visible wins in security and food.
B) Drift (most likely without courage)
Half-measures on security and FX, sporadic relief, rising fatigue. Parties enter 2027 fragmented; primaries are messy; litigation multiplies. Election day is tense but not catastrophic. The winner inherits a legitimacy deficit and starts on the back foot, making 2027–2029 another cycle of firefighting.
What drives this: Mixed signals, politicised security, and coalitions built around personalities instead of a signed, public program.
C) Disruption (worst case)
Escalation of political thuggery, widespread kidnapping spikes, and economic shocks trigger street unrest. Ethno-religious entrepreneurs exploit pain. Elections become a security operation rather than a civic festival; outcomes are contested nationwide.
How to avoid it: Absolute renunciation of violence by all leaders; firm, even-handed policing; and consistent, humble communication that treats citizens as partners, not problems.
What ADC Political Leaders—and the Coalition—Should Do from Today
Sign a Public Reform Compact: A 10-point, 18-month plan (security corridors, food security, FX clarity, power clusters, social protection, justice timelines, civil service performance compacts, local government functionality, anti-corruption cases with clocks, and a national unity code of conduct). Let every signatory be held to it—before and after elections.
READ ALSO: Nigeria Police in Chains of Sycophancy: From legacy to laughter, by Hassan Ahmad
Run Primaries That Respect Citizens: Clear rules, capped nomination costs, debates for aspirants, and a third-party audit of delegate lists. If you can’t run a clean primary, you can’t run a clean government.
Condemn and Punish Thuggery—Immediately: Expel any party member who sponsors violence; cooperate with police to prosecute. No office is worth a Nigerian life.
Put Youth and Women at the Table, Not the Gallery: 35% of tickets and campaign leadership for under-45s and women—by rule, not goodwill.
Communicate Like Adults: Weekly dashboards on security, prices, power, and reforms. Admit setbacks; show corrections. Trust grows where truth lives.
Bottom Line
Nigeria is not condemned to chaos. We are standing at a junction: Renewal if we combine relief with reform and politics with principle; Drift if we continue business as usual; Disruption if leaders choose power over peace. 2027 will not magically fix what 2025 refuses to confront. But with courage, restraint, and accountability, 2027 can mark a turning of the tide.
By Hassan Ahmad.
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